Shadows of Terror
GCV's Best of 2024
(Hello, Andiwalaan, GCV here, and I’m kicking it in Forney, TX. I’m getting close to a new house. Fingers crossed! While we all enjoy our time with our families, Grumpy Combat Veteran + Friends will be taking a much-needed rest and will be re-publishing of some of our most popular articles this year.)
In a quiet suburb of Texas, 28-year-old Anas Said was arrested on November 8, 2024, for allegedly attempting to provide material support to the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS). Authorities claim that Said created and disseminated pro-ISIS propaganda, including videos and images glorifying the group's violent acts. He also reportedly expressed intentions to commit violent attacks within the United States, such as targeting military recruitment centers and offering his residence as a sanctuary for ISIS operatives (U.S. Department of Justice 2024).
Halfway across the world, in a war-torn village in Syria, families mourn the loss of their homes and loved ones, victims of a conflict they never asked for. The Syrian civil war, ongoing since 2011, has led to widespread displacement and suffering. For instance, in Aleppo, recent escalations have resulted in significant civilian casualties. On December 2, 2024, airstrikes by Russian and Syrian jets on rebel-held territories in northwestern Syria killed at least 25 people, including 10 children (Davies and Cooney, 2024). These disparate lives are threads woven into a complex tapestry of global terrorism, intricately connected by the shadows cast by two of the most formidable terrorist organizations of our time: the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and pre-9/11 Al-Qaeda.
For over three decades, these groups have not only dominated headlines but have also profoundly affected the lives of countless individuals. Their reach extends beyond borders and cultures, tapping into the vulnerabilities and grievances of people worldwide. Understanding the parallels between ISIS and Al-Qaeda is not just an academic exercise but a pressing necessity. It is about recognizing the human stories behind the statistics, the emotional currents that drive individuals toward extremism, and the geopolitical landscapes that allow such ideologies to flourish.
Therefore, this essay delves into five key trends shared by ISIS and pre-9/11 Al-Qaeda: the weaponization of narratives through media and propaganda, the recruitment of marginalized individuals, the resilience offered by decentralized structures, the exploitation of failed states, and the calculated targeting of Western interests. By exploring these facets, we aim to illuminate the pathways that lead individuals into the folds of extremism and highlight strategies to counter these influences.
The Weaponization of Narratives
Picture a group of young women misunderstood in their community stumble upon a video online—a compelling narrative that speaks directly to their sense of injustice and longing for purpose. This is what exactly happened. In late 2021, a group of 300 young Afghan women dressed in black burqas and niqabs gathered to express support for the Taliban's policies and to oppose recent women's protests advocating for democratic rights and freedoms, criticizing them as “Westernized women,” who are using the Afghan women name for their “democratic freedom,” which, according to them, is “against Afghan and Islamic values” (Deutsche Welle, 2021). The Taliban, since their return to power in 2021, have imposed severe restrictions on women's rights, leading to increased isolation and vulnerability among Afghan women. This environment can make them more susceptible to extremist narratives propagated through various media channels.
Al-Qaeda, under the charismatic leadership of Osama bin Laden, was a pioneer in using the media to spread its message. Bin Laden's video speeches were not just monologues; they were carefully crafted narratives designed to resonate with Muslims who felt oppressed or alienated. By highlighting the suffering of Muslims in places like Palestine, Iraq, and Afghanistan, Al-Qaeda positioned itself as a defender of the faith, a beacon for those seeking justice (Weimann 2004, 1–12).
ISIS took this strategy and amplified it exponentially. They use modern technology to produce high-quality videos with professional cinematography, combining dramatic storytelling with graphic imagery. Platforms like Twitter, Facebook, and Telegram are becoming their battlegrounds, reaching millions instantly (Berger and Morgan 2015, 1–65). Their online magazine, Dabiq, is not just propaganda—it is a recruitment manual offering ideological justifications and glamorizing the so-called "jihadist" lifestyle.
Unlike Al-Qaeda, which leaned heavily on the allure of its leadership, ISIS understands the power of visual storytelling and interactive communication. They target tech-savvy youth, using memes and hashtags to make their content viral. For someone like Anas, scrolling through his feed, these messages could feel like a direct invitation to join something bigger than himself.
For example, at the height of their influence in 2015, ISIS supporters operated over 46,000 Twitter accounts (Berger and Morgan 2015, 7). This vast network enabled them to radicalize and recruit at a new pace. While Al-Qaeda's reach was significant, it was constrained by the slower dissemination of physical networks and older media formats. ISIS's mastery of digital platforms is allowing them to create a global community of sympathizers almost overnight.
Recruitment of Marginalized and Disenfranchised Individuals
Both ISIS and Al-Qaeda have honed their recruitment strategies to tap into the frustrations of marginalized and disenfranchised individuals. Al-Qaeda's narratives appealed to those alienated by political oppression and economic instability. Their portrayal of the West as aggressors against Islam resonated with young Muslims grappling with identity and belonging (Sageman 2004, 89).
ISIS continues to build upon these strategies, focusing heavily on vulnerable populations in regions plagued by instability, displacement, or systemic discrimination. In recent years, the group's recruitment efforts have expanded to target individuals in refugee camps, prisons, and economically disadvantaged communities. Many recruits are second-generation immigrants in Europe and North America, often experiencing identity crises and systemic inequities. Today, ISIS recruiters exploit online platforms and encrypted messaging apps, offering narratives that resonate with these individuals’ sense of alienation. Reports reveal that even those with little prior religious knowledge are drawn in by promises of empowerment and purpose (Hassan 2023, 34).
Moreover, ISIS innovated by actively recruiting women, a demographic overlooked mainly by Al-Qaeda. Recent propaganda targets women in diaspora communities, presenting roles in state-building efforts and emphasizing their importance as educators and caregivers in their vision of a caliphate. Online spaces remain central to these efforts, providing platforms to engage women directly and promote the narrative of escape from oppression or a search for deeper meaning (Hoyle et al. 2015, 5; Winter and Ingram 2024, 18).
Both groups skillfully manipulate psychological triggers, crafting narratives that intertwine personal redemption with collective duty. By framing their missions as transformative movements, they draw individuals searching for significance, converting not just fighters but believers committed to their cause.
The Architecture of Resilience
The resilience of both organizations lies in their decentralized structures—a strategic choice that has made them formidable adversaries. Al-Qaeda's network of semi-autonomous cells allowed them to operate independently while adhering to a central ideology. This structure meant that dismantling one cell did not cripple the entire organization, as evidenced by the coordinated attacks like the 1998 U.S. embassy bombings and the September 11 attacks (Hoffman 2006, 135).
ISIS has refined this model further, establishing regional affiliates such as ISIS-Khorasan and ISIS-West Africa. These groups act as extensions of the central organization while retaining operational autonomy, allowing ISIS to maintain its influence despite significant territorial losses. Lone-wolf attacks remain a hallmark of their strategy, where individuals unaffiliated with any formal cell carry out violent acts in ISIS's name, amplifying their reach and complicating counterterrorism efforts (Clarke and Moghadam 2018, 535).
While offering operational flexibility, this decentralization poses significant challenges to counterterrorism strategies. Eliminating key leaders or dismantling one cell often has a limited impact on the broader network. The adaptability and resilience of these structures resemble battling a hydra—cut off one head, and others emerge. This architectural resilience ensures their survival and adaptability despite relentless opposition.
Breeding Grounds for Terrorism
In regions where governance collapses and chaos reigns, people like the family mourning in the war-torn village in Syria become unintended victims caught between warring factions. Both Al-Qaeda and ISIS have thrived in such environments, exploiting the vacuum left by weak or failed states. For instance, Al-Qaeda's rise was significantly facilitated by Afghanistan's instability in the 1990s. Under the Taliban's protection, they established training camps and embedded themselves within local communities, operating with minimal interference (Coll 2004, 256). The lack of a strong central government allowed them to plan and execute attacks with impunity.
Similarly, ISIS capitalized on the turmoil in Iraq and Syria. The U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the Syrian civil war in 2011 led to the disintegration of state institutions. ISIS seized this opportunity to control large territories, declaring a caliphate in 2014. This territorial control was not just symbolic; it provided them with resources through taxation, oil smuggling, and extortion, fueling their war machine (Cockburn 2015, 42).
A Calculated Strategy: Targeting of Western Interests
The haunting memories of September 11, 2001, and the harrowing scenes from attacks in Paris and Manchester serve as stark reminders of how both Al-Qaeda and ISIS have strategically targeted Western interests. For Al-Qaeda, these assaults were not just random acts of terror; they were carefully orchestrated to provoke military responses, feeding into their narrative of Western hostility toward Islam (Bergen 2001, 78). By polarizing societies, they aimed to radicalize more individuals and draw them into their cause. For example, this strategy was evident in the 2004 Madrid train bombings, where explosions tore through commuter trains during rush hour, causing massive casualties and swaying Spain's national elections. A year later, the 2005 London bombings struck the heart of the city's public transportation system, disrupting daily life and instilling fear among millions.
ISIS has taken this tactic and adapted it for the modern age. High-profile attacks not only spread fear but also showcase their global reach. The coordinated attacks in Paris in 2015, targeting venues like the Bataclan concert hall and bustling restaurants, highlight this approach. In 2016, the Brussels bombings hit the airport and a metro station, emphasizing the vulnerability of public spaces. Moreover, recent reports have uncovered ISIS-affiliated lone-wolf attacks in countries like the U.S. and Germany. Individuals inspired by online propaganda have used simple, everyday tools to wreak havoc with minimal resources (Clarke and Moghadam 2018, 535). The 2016 truck attack in Nice, France, where a lone attacker drove through crowds celebrating Bastille Day, and the 2017 Manchester Arena bombing during a concert underscore how ordinary settings are exploited to create widespread fear.
By continually adapting their methods and exploiting weaknesses in Western societies, both Al-Qaeda and ISIS aim to advance their objectives while drawing global attention to their causes. Their calculated strategies highlight the urgent need for international cooperation in counterterrorism efforts and the importance of vigilant security measures in our public spaces.
Implications for Counterterrorism Strategies
The human stories intertwined with these organizations' activities highlight the need for comprehensive counterterrorism strategies beyond military intervention. Addressing the root causes that make individuals susceptible to radicalization is crucial. This includes tackling socio-economic disparities, combating political oppression, and helping individuals like Anas find a sense of identity and purpose within their communities.
Disrupting the digital propaganda machine is equally important. Governments, tech companies, and civil society must collaborate to monitor and counter extremist content online. Providing counter-narratives that resonate with vulnerable individuals can help prevent the initial spark of radicalization.
Moreover, supporting the stabilization of failed states is essential. International efforts to strengthen governance, promote economic development, and resolve political conflicts can reduce the ungoverned spaces that groups like ISIS and Al-Qaeda exploit. It is about rebuilding communities so families in war-torn villages no longer live in fear and young people see a future worth investing in.
Conclusion
The parallels between ISIS and pre-9/11 Al-Qaeda underscore a persistent challenge that transcends time and geography. Despite facing significant territorial and leadership losses, both groups continue to adapt, recruit, and operate through evolving strategies. Their ability to exploit societal grievances, weaponize media, and thrive in failed states reveals the complexities of countering modern terrorism.
Behind each recruit is a person seeking meaning, behind each attack is a community left to heal, and behind each failed state is a population yearning for stability. Addressing these human stories requires a multifaceted approach that moves beyond military intervention. Counterterrorism strategies must address the socio-economic and political factors that foster radicalization, disrupt digital propaganda networks, and stabilize vulnerable regions to prevent the exploitation of governance voids.
Colonel Abdul Rahman Rahmani was a previous Afghan government’s Office of the National Security Council (ONSC) member and flew countless missions for the elite Afghan Air Force Special Mission Wing.
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