We’re growing the ability to not need Pakistani airbases. Long endurance UAVs will provide us the ISR capacity at some point over the next half decade to be able to overcome the distance problem. But, Airborne ISR isn’t as effective without the other disciplines of intelligence also fulfilling their niche gaps. We can today project power (read: kill our enemies) anywhere on this planet. But, we need placement and access to effectively develop the targeting intelligence required to conduct counterterrorism operations. And this is where our failure to support the resistance in Afghanistan hamstrings us. We should have a 333 program with them. We should equip them. We should remotely advise and assist them. But we’ve just abandoned them. And the west will someday pay the price for thinking that the OTH CT capabilities are the end all, be all to harass our adversaries that defeated us in the graveyard of empires.
I like your view of Pakistan, but I wonder if the Taliban will really keep coming after us. When I read Afghanistan history like Dalrymple’s Return Of A King, it seems like the Afghanis unite to expel a foreign invader, but then fall apart into factions after the threat is gone. Has something changed with the Taliban? Thx.
IS-K literally attacked Moscow 35 years after the Soviet withdrawal. The Taliban today should not be viewed as a separate entity from AQ. They barely even attempt to provide the facade that they are independent organizations. They are very much one and the same. So while they may be the “domestic” wing of the bird, they will absolutely harbor and invite the extremists within their borders to use Afghanistan as a projection platform to plan and perform external attacks reaching the West… including the US Homeland.
I don't think anyone on the planet was fooled by a pro forma expression of regrets. However, the absence of this expected diplomatic courtesy would be quite remarkable.
Isn't it ironic that Pakistan is the one South Asian country that is not undergoing swift economic development, compared to Bangladesh, India, and Sri Lanka? Makes you wonder.
I may not know much but I never believed for a minute that Pakistan ever had the U.S's best interests at heart. Ever. You just confirmed it.
I will listen to your new podcast too Will. You always have great content. I have been sharing your Substack as much as possible. Thanks again for all you do to keep us informed!!!
Is it not a good thing when bad things happen to very bad people? Apparently our administration thinks not. They could have just said nothing. Seems likely that they would have sent condolences to the Third Reich on April 30, 1945. What were they thinking? Do they not understand the nature of this struggle?
Good diplomacy also entails knowing when to keep you mouth shut & say nothing. When we issue a press release such as this regarding Iran, all of our allies & adversaries also see it & probably wonder how dedicated we really are to the founding principles.
I’d respectfully disagree that this is akin to sending condolences to the Third Reich. The press release in no way expressed condolences to the Iranian government, but rather expresses solidarity with the Iranian people who were oppressed by those killed in the crash and likely those who will replace them. Since Raisi was largely speculated to become the replacement to the Ayatollah, his removal (through natural causes or pilot error) will likely embolden the resistance forces within Iran. This statement of solidarity serves to inspire, although it’ll never be backed by more than words 🤷🏻♂️ but, it’s also a declaration that long term sanctions are having profound impacts on the regimes ability to self sustain. Their presidential transport didn’t even have a terrain avoidance system and was VFR only. Can you imagine that in the US?
I don't know that many people have been under any illusions about ISI for a very long time. Isn't it perhaps possible that our relationship with Pakistan writ large was more complicated than simply "they're our ally, therefore we think they're the good guys?" Might not there be larger political considerations to our dealings with that country over the last 20 years?
What about Biden saying we could still attack the bad guys in Afghanistan from over their horizon? Or am I supposed to not remember that?
It won’t work. We don’t have the intelligence capability to hunt them anymore. And we have to rely on Pakistani airbases to launch drone strikes.
We’re growing the ability to not need Pakistani airbases. Long endurance UAVs will provide us the ISR capacity at some point over the next half decade to be able to overcome the distance problem. But, Airborne ISR isn’t as effective without the other disciplines of intelligence also fulfilling their niche gaps. We can today project power (read: kill our enemies) anywhere on this planet. But, we need placement and access to effectively develop the targeting intelligence required to conduct counterterrorism operations. And this is where our failure to support the resistance in Afghanistan hamstrings us. We should have a 333 program with them. We should equip them. We should remotely advise and assist them. But we’ve just abandoned them. And the west will someday pay the price for thinking that the OTH CT capabilities are the end all, be all to harass our adversaries that defeated us in the graveyard of empires.
I like your view of Pakistan, but I wonder if the Taliban will really keep coming after us. When I read Afghanistan history like Dalrymple’s Return Of A King, it seems like the Afghanis unite to expel a foreign invader, but then fall apart into factions after the threat is gone. Has something changed with the Taliban? Thx.
IS-K literally attacked Moscow 35 years after the Soviet withdrawal. The Taliban today should not be viewed as a separate entity from AQ. They barely even attempt to provide the facade that they are independent organizations. They are very much one and the same. So while they may be the “domestic” wing of the bird, they will absolutely harbor and invite the extremists within their borders to use Afghanistan as a projection platform to plan and perform external attacks reaching the West… including the US Homeland.
I don't think anyone on the planet was fooled by a pro forma expression of regrets. However, the absence of this expected diplomatic courtesy would be quite remarkable.
Isn't it ironic that Pakistan is the one South Asian country that is not undergoing swift economic development, compared to Bangladesh, India, and Sri Lanka? Makes you wonder.
I may not know much but I never believed for a minute that Pakistan ever had the U.S's best interests at heart. Ever. You just confirmed it.
I will listen to your new podcast too Will. You always have great content. I have been sharing your Substack as much as possible. Thanks again for all you do to keep us informed!!!
❤️🇺🇸💙
How about:
On The US Government (Part 1 of infinite)
Our Enemies - What the Actual Fork?
https://www.state.gov/on-the-death-of-iranian-president-raisi-and-others-in-a-helicopter-crash/
Is it not a good thing when bad things happen to very bad people? Apparently our administration thinks not. They could have just said nothing. Seems likely that they would have sent condolences to the Third Reich on April 30, 1945. What were they thinking? Do they not understand the nature of this struggle?
Maybe we have to pretend to not be happy. That's been a part of diplomacy for 500 years at least.
Good diplomacy also entails knowing when to keep you mouth shut & say nothing. When we issue a press release such as this regarding Iran, all of our allies & adversaries also see it & probably wonder how dedicated we really are to the founding principles.
I’d respectfully disagree that this is akin to sending condolences to the Third Reich. The press release in no way expressed condolences to the Iranian government, but rather expresses solidarity with the Iranian people who were oppressed by those killed in the crash and likely those who will replace them. Since Raisi was largely speculated to become the replacement to the Ayatollah, his removal (through natural causes or pilot error) will likely embolden the resistance forces within Iran. This statement of solidarity serves to inspire, although it’ll never be backed by more than words 🤷🏻♂️ but, it’s also a declaration that long term sanctions are having profound impacts on the regimes ability to self sustain. Their presidential transport didn’t even have a terrain avoidance system and was VFR only. Can you imagine that in the US?
Fair point.
I don't know that many people have been under any illusions about ISI for a very long time. Isn't it perhaps possible that our relationship with Pakistan writ large was more complicated than simply "they're our ally, therefore we think they're the good guys?" Might not there be larger political considerations to our dealings with that country over the last 20 years?