Will: As I read this column, I kept nodding my head so that my wife probably thought I had turned into a bobblehead doll and saying "Yes!" with varying levels of intensity. Kind of what I do when I read any of your columns, only more so. (Parenthetically, I was thinking that many of the things you wrote here could and should equally apply to the Israeli Defense Forces after the intelligence Charlie Foxtrot that allowed the Hamas attack to succeed last Oct. 7th. Revelations are still coming out and will continue but I can only conclude that they didn't or no longer taught the lessons of the 1973 Yom Kippur War intelligence and decision-making failures because, "Let me count the ways," of how many were carbon copy repeats of mistakes and failures of 50 years before.) Anyway, let me say with absolute conviction as someone who admittedly has not served in uniform but did spend the first five years of his career as a civilian intel analyst in a couple of three-letter DoD intel agencies and has worked with the DoD and military all his life, that you hit a bullseye, IMHO. Humility MUST go with honor. There is too little of either or both in Washington these days (one of the reasons why you write for The Bulwark and why I read it) and one without the other will leave people like the two Captain Kirks in the episode, "The Enemy Within." Oh, and one more thing. Aren't you describing "grade inflation" in the military? Keep on keeping on!
Good question. I'm afraid that, as is usually the case, the answer is "it depends" and/or "it's complicated." One of the most fundamental rules of intelligence analysis is that you're trying to put together a jigsaw puzzle which has a lot of blue sky but possibly or probably or definitely (good analytical intel terms) there are some undetermined number of relevant or useful images scattered about in the blue sky and, by the way, at least 50% or more of the pieces of the entire puzzle are missing, and the picture is not static, and some new pieces may suddenly appear while others may mysteriously disappear. Keep that in mind if you're trying to assign responsibility for failures AND successes. Also keep in mind that the intel people will often/usually be taking their cues and directions and assignments from the leadership. If leadership tells you to focus your scarce resources on B instead of A, even if you think A is more critical, the political, bureaucratic, social, and budget structures and strictures will usually move you and your organization to focus on B. But let me use an example that is very familiar to me (and I don't have to worry about past obligations regarding classified information that still, presumably hold for me today). In 1973, the Israeli political leadership, as well as the military and intelligence establishments were wedded to what was known in Hebrew as "Ha-Konseptzia." (The Concept.) This was the belief that after the 1967 Arab-Israeli War, Israel was invincible and the Arabs would not attack Israel because they knew they would inevitably lose. This led to a sense of complacency that Israel didn't have to worry about proactive diplomacy to break the deadlock. At the same time, it also led the Israeli political, military, and intelligence leaderships to ignore warning signs coming from Egypt and Syria that they were not going to do nothing about the status quo. The Israelis did not imagine that those countries would go to war with Israel with limited aims since war, in the Arab concept, had always meant the destruction of Israel. There were Israeli military and intel analysts who connected the dots and tried to pass their warnings up the chain but, in the face of "The Concept," they didn't get far or were simply ignored. Those same mistakes were repeated exactly 50 years later by the same Israeli political, military, and intelligence establishments and leadership (with different people, of course), and warnings from below were ignored again, which allowed Hamas to successfully pull off the October 7th attack against Israel. So, bottom line, in 1973 and 2023, the failures were by both intelligence and leadership. On the other hand, Stalin had extraordinarily good intelligence that Germany was going to attack the Soviet Union in June 1941. He had reports from Soviet spy Richard Sorge in Tokyo, as well as detailed warnings from British Prime Minister Winston Churchill, and he had a constant stream of intelligence reports from miliary units all along the border with Germany (including occupied Poland) that provided a wealth of information on German military buildups, German overflights, and German reconnaissance incursions. Stalin ignored them all and even punished by executions or sending to the Gulag any Red Army commanders who tried to deploy their units to counter what they saw as the coming invasion. Obvious failure of leadership. Full stop. Bottom line: It depends.
BTW, lies, lies, and more lies are characteristic of every bureaucracy. The quickest path to excellent performance is to proclaim that you are performing excellently.
Dear GCV: I'm going to ask you to be very honest with yourself— does your goal of writing every day contribute to your mental health or add pressure to your life and detract from your mental health? For the shake of your family, you should answer this question clearly. You certainly don't owe me a post everyday. For some people, writing releases the pressure, for others it cranks it up. Which are you?
Writing helps me process my thoughts. Writing on here is like working out: rounds and reps. It allows me to write without a net (editors). I like to toy with some ideas and post it on here. I don't feel pressured to write. It's a great joy in my life.
Writing on deadline used to cause me a lot of stress, especially when the inspiration wasn't coming. (However, as the clock was ticking down I was always reminded of Samuel Johnson's observation that "The knowledge that you're going to be hanged in a fortnight concentrates the mind wonderfully," and then the words started miraculously flowing. Now when I mostly write for myself I can absolutely relate to Will. It IS like working out and it IS a great way to reduce stress. Strangely, the inspiration comes non-stop most of the time now.
I have tried to sort through all the articles about our withdrawal from Afghanistan to figure out what happened, whether Biden ignored military advice or was pressured to fulfill Trump's stated/signed obligations or received bad intel. Or all of that. Whatever the reason(s), the result had been a tragedy especially for Afghan women and girls.
How can good decisions be made if all parties involved are not willing or capable of owning up to their own fallibility?
Will: As I read this column, I kept nodding my head so that my wife probably thought I had turned into a bobblehead doll and saying "Yes!" with varying levels of intensity. Kind of what I do when I read any of your columns, only more so. (Parenthetically, I was thinking that many of the things you wrote here could and should equally apply to the Israeli Defense Forces after the intelligence Charlie Foxtrot that allowed the Hamas attack to succeed last Oct. 7th. Revelations are still coming out and will continue but I can only conclude that they didn't or no longer taught the lessons of the 1973 Yom Kippur War intelligence and decision-making failures because, "Let me count the ways," of how many were carbon copy repeats of mistakes and failures of 50 years before.) Anyway, let me say with absolute conviction as someone who admittedly has not served in uniform but did spend the first five years of his career as a civilian intel analyst in a couple of three-letter DoD intel agencies and has worked with the DoD and military all his life, that you hit a bullseye, IMHO. Humility MUST go with honor. There is too little of either or both in Washington these days (one of the reasons why you write for The Bulwark and why I read it) and one without the other will leave people like the two Captain Kirks in the episode, "The Enemy Within." Oh, and one more thing. Aren't you describing "grade inflation" in the military? Keep on keeping on!
Is it an intelligence failure when a decision-maker ignores intelligence reporting and analysis? Or is it a leadership failure?
Good question. I'm afraid that, as is usually the case, the answer is "it depends" and/or "it's complicated." One of the most fundamental rules of intelligence analysis is that you're trying to put together a jigsaw puzzle which has a lot of blue sky but possibly or probably or definitely (good analytical intel terms) there are some undetermined number of relevant or useful images scattered about in the blue sky and, by the way, at least 50% or more of the pieces of the entire puzzle are missing, and the picture is not static, and some new pieces may suddenly appear while others may mysteriously disappear. Keep that in mind if you're trying to assign responsibility for failures AND successes. Also keep in mind that the intel people will often/usually be taking their cues and directions and assignments from the leadership. If leadership tells you to focus your scarce resources on B instead of A, even if you think A is more critical, the political, bureaucratic, social, and budget structures and strictures will usually move you and your organization to focus on B. But let me use an example that is very familiar to me (and I don't have to worry about past obligations regarding classified information that still, presumably hold for me today). In 1973, the Israeli political leadership, as well as the military and intelligence establishments were wedded to what was known in Hebrew as "Ha-Konseptzia." (The Concept.) This was the belief that after the 1967 Arab-Israeli War, Israel was invincible and the Arabs would not attack Israel because they knew they would inevitably lose. This led to a sense of complacency that Israel didn't have to worry about proactive diplomacy to break the deadlock. At the same time, it also led the Israeli political, military, and intelligence leaderships to ignore warning signs coming from Egypt and Syria that they were not going to do nothing about the status quo. The Israelis did not imagine that those countries would go to war with Israel with limited aims since war, in the Arab concept, had always meant the destruction of Israel. There were Israeli military and intel analysts who connected the dots and tried to pass their warnings up the chain but, in the face of "The Concept," they didn't get far or were simply ignored. Those same mistakes were repeated exactly 50 years later by the same Israeli political, military, and intelligence establishments and leadership (with different people, of course), and warnings from below were ignored again, which allowed Hamas to successfully pull off the October 7th attack against Israel. So, bottom line, in 1973 and 2023, the failures were by both intelligence and leadership. On the other hand, Stalin had extraordinarily good intelligence that Germany was going to attack the Soviet Union in June 1941. He had reports from Soviet spy Richard Sorge in Tokyo, as well as detailed warnings from British Prime Minister Winston Churchill, and he had a constant stream of intelligence reports from miliary units all along the border with Germany (including occupied Poland) that provided a wealth of information on German military buildups, German overflights, and German reconnaissance incursions. Stalin ignored them all and even punished by executions or sending to the Gulag any Red Army commanders who tried to deploy their units to counter what they saw as the coming invasion. Obvious failure of leadership. Full stop. Bottom line: It depends.
Full concur on all of this 👍
BTW, lies, lies, and more lies are characteristic of every bureaucracy. The quickest path to excellent performance is to proclaim that you are performing excellently.
Dear GCV: I'm going to ask you to be very honest with yourself— does your goal of writing every day contribute to your mental health or add pressure to your life and detract from your mental health? For the shake of your family, you should answer this question clearly. You certainly don't owe me a post everyday. For some people, writing releases the pressure, for others it cranks it up. Which are you?
Writing helps me process my thoughts. Writing on here is like working out: rounds and reps. It allows me to write without a net (editors). I like to toy with some ideas and post it on here. I don't feel pressured to write. It's a great joy in my life.
I am so glad to hear that. Writing causes me a lot of stress, and I'm GLAD you do not take after me.
Writing on deadline used to cause me a lot of stress, especially when the inspiration wasn't coming. (However, as the clock was ticking down I was always reminded of Samuel Johnson's observation that "The knowledge that you're going to be hanged in a fortnight concentrates the mind wonderfully," and then the words started miraculously flowing. Now when I mostly write for myself I can absolutely relate to Will. It IS like working out and it IS a great way to reduce stress. Strangely, the inspiration comes non-stop most of the time now.
Thoughtful piece, as usual. Thanks, Will.
I have tried to sort through all the articles about our withdrawal from Afghanistan to figure out what happened, whether Biden ignored military advice or was pressured to fulfill Trump's stated/signed obligations or received bad intel. Or all of that. Whatever the reason(s), the result had been a tragedy especially for Afghan women and girls.
How can good decisions be made if all parties involved are not willing or capable of owning up to their own fallibility?