Israel Braces for an Iranian Response
The region inches toward a full-blown regional war
Over the weekend, United States Central Command (CENTCOM) Commander General Erik Michael Kurrila visited Israel to ensure the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) had the support they needed as the region braced for Iran’s expected retaliatory strike for Israel’s killing of Hezbollah Commander Fuad Shakur in Lebanon and Hamas’ political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
Further, the Department of Defense (DoD) deployed a squadron of F-22s to the region. Secretary of Defense Austin ordered the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group to replace the Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group near the Gulf of Oman. A carrier strike group usually consists of an aircraft carrier, two guided missile cruisers, two anti-aircraft warships, and some anti-submarine destroyers or frigates. In short, there’s plenty of American firepower in the region at President Biden’s disposal. Hopefully, it will also give Iran some pause as it ponders its response plans.
According to the Wall Street Journal, Iran rebuffed calls for restraint by the United States and other Arab countries. Iran could begin their attacks as early as Monday, according to Axios. At the same time, Sky News Arabia reports that Iran will likely strike on the Israeli holiday of Tisha B’Av on 12 August.
Although the New York Times reports that Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ordered his forces to strike Israel directly, it’s anyone’s guess as to the length, duration, and lethality of Iran’s retaliatory strike. But, Iran’s response is unlikely to mirror its April salvo. During that attack, Iran and its proxies throughout the region launched over 300 missiles and drones that Israel, CENTCOM, and other Western allies swatted away.
Iran launched April’s attack in retaliation for an Israeli strike that killed two Iranian generals in Syria. Iranian generals are expendable, especially when they’re out on the battlefield. But killing a trusted Iranian ally (Haniyeh) in Tehran hours after the inauguration of the new Iranian president is far more humiliating for the Iranian regime. And they will seek to restore some vestige of their honor in its forthcoming attack.
While April’s salvo did not successfully kill any Israelis, Iran and its proxies have been carefully studying the Israeli responses to their salvos over the last few months. Thus, there’s no guarantee that the US, Israel, and its allies will be as successful as they were in April. In fact, it’s unlikely they will be.
Should the US, Israel, and its Western and Arab allies successfully block another Iranian salvo, President Biden is likely to tell Prime Minister Bibi to “take the win” again. Perhaps Bibi will then succumb to pressure from the IDF and his allies to take the temporary ceasefire deal. However, if Iran succeeds and kills enough Israeli citizens, then Biden will struggle mightily to restrain Bibi, as Bib’s right flank will insist on a tough response.
Whatever comes next could determine the course of the next few months.
I find it really interesting that Iran says that they are going to target civilians now. Were not the 12 Druze children civilians? Isn't the cities in the north of Israel, civilian? Some of those major cities are decimated by half. The only reason more Israeli civilians are not dead is because Israel evacuated the northern towns. Does it mean that they are now going to target the Galilee? They have already targeted the galilee panhandle. Maybe they are threatening Tel Aviv?
If any amount of civilians are killed, the war in Lebanon will start. That is why thousands are leaving the country and have been for month.
It is so awful that the world allowed the Mullahs to become this powerful that they can endanger entire nations without risking themselves. Maybe it's time to cut off the head of the snake.
Just stay on U.S. soil please.