The Air Force Must Embrace Risk Or Fail

The Costs of Inaction Are Too Great

Oct 31, 2024

The U.S. Air Force Thunderbirds perform an airshow after the 2007 U.S. Air Force Academy Graduation Ceremony May 30 in Colorado. The ceremony marks the culmination of four years at the academy and their transition from cadet to the Air Force's newest second lieutenants. (Commons)

The increasing reluctance of military officers to accept risk will ultimately lead to combat ineffectiveness and the inability to accomplish our objectives. To combat this, the Air Force must accept that risk is an inseparable part of conducting military operations, take steps to define risk and incentivize taking appropriate risks at all levels by highlighting examples of these actions found throughout its ranks. Air Force leadership must combine these steps with steadfast and open support through a concerted effort to embrace change, reduce risk aversion, and find ways to accept failure.

Over the last decade, the subject of risk in the military has become increasingly common, not for identifying how to become more comfortable taking risks but rather for reducing them. After decades of war, leaders at every level of command have become hyperaware of the tendency of the services to reprimand leaders for taking risks. Consequently, “commanding officers are groomed to follow directions and avoid risk in executing their duties.”[1] As a result, the military has become what former Chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff General (ret) Mark Milley calls “overly centralized, overly bureaucratic, and overly risk averse”[2] rather than create a culture willing to accept and take risks to achieve results.

Risk is a necessary component for success in the military. The 2018 National Defense Strategy advocates “fostering a culture of experimentation and calculated risk-taking.”[3] To avoid taking risks dramatically hinders the ability to accomplish the mission. As Fredrick the Great once claimed, “great things are only achieved when we take great risks.”[4] If this is true, then why has the military become increasingly risk-averse? The answer may be fear, or more specifically, the fear of failure. Over time, and for many reasons, failures have resulted in the cancellation of long-standing programs costing hundreds of millions of dollars.[5] Failures have caused innovation and the speed of acquisitions of weapons and systems to slow to a fraction of the speed they once were[6], and failure has led to the end of many careers.

This fear of failure has created a risk-averse culture in the military, which paralyzes progress until everyone is sure of success. Yet fear can be conquered by courage and boldness. Prussian theorist Carl von Clausewitz wrote, “a distinguished commander without boldness is unthinkable. No man who is not born bold can play such a role, and therefore, we consider this quality the first prerequisite of the great military leader.” Therefore, boldness is required from our leaders to make the changes necessary to perpetuate real change, and it is the courage to accept risk and the chance of failure that will begin to reverse risk aversion in the military.

In August 2020, Air Force Chief of Staff General C.Q. Brown modeled boldness and courage and authored the “Accelerate Change or Lose” (ACOL) paper. This paper challenged the status quo and clearly stated that America risked losing the next high-end fight. Inherent within General Browns’ ACOL is the necessity of taking acceptable risks to achieve results. Specifically, he talks about how we must empower Airmen to accomplish the mission against a near-peer competitor. He states, “We must empower Airmen at all levels, delegating to the lowest capable and competent level possible, mindful that with empowerment and trust comes accountability.”

General Brown used empowerment and trust together because he understands that risk requires trust. If leaders do not trust Airmen, they will be less inclined to empower them. If Airmen do not trust leaders, they will be unwilling to accept risk. Therefore, to effectively empower Airmen and delegate, as General Brown states, the Air Force must be willing to take more risk at all levels and begin to change the way it views risk and the changes risk demands.

Changing the culture and the view on risk will take work. One of the challenges of accepting risk is the definition of risk, and its application is philosophical and difficult to grasp for many reasons.[7] One of the main reasons is the concept of risk is subjective. Risk for an aircraft maintainer looks much different than for a linguist or a pilot. Additionally, every commander has their own definition of acceptable risk, and every mission has its own set of unique risks. However, regardless of rank, position, or mission, one commonality shared by all is that risk requires action and is paired with uncertainty and the chance of failure. Creating a way to identify these actions is critical to an effective definition of risk, as it is impossible to define risk without acknowledging the associated action, the value of the outcome, and the likelihood the outcome will occur.[8]

Another challenge to accepting more risk in the military is loss aversion, defined as “the tendency for people to fear losses more than they desire equivalent gains.”[9] This tendency is compounded by the overall negative connotation associated with risk.[10] If something is risky, it must mean something terrible can happen if things go wrong. As a result, “risk assessments warn commanders of potential costs, but there is no equivalent process to show potential gains. In other words, tactical risk is always framed to encourage risk aversion.”[11] Consequently, it is easier to find ways to avoid taking the risk rather than overcome the fear and accept the risk. This mindset can lead to accepting the status quo since doing nothing sometimes seems less risky. However, herein lies the problem: sometimes, the status quo is broken, and inaction can have adverse effects.

The Marine Corps Doctrinal Publication 1, Warfighting, states that risk is “equally common to action and inaction.”[12] If this is true, then why is risk so often looked at as the consequence of an action rather than the consequence of inaction? Sometimes, the fear of or unwillingness to act can be the option containing the greatest risk. Therefore, the fear of inaction, not failure, should be the greatest concern. As Dale Carnegie stated, "Inaction breeds doubt and fear. Action breeds confidence and courage.”[13] The Air Force can no longer tolerate a culture that is afraid to act unless everyone is sure they will succeed. It cannot allow “perfect” to be the enemy of “good enough.”[14] It must embrace change, find ways to accept failure and praise those among the ranks who exhibit the bold and courageous actions that risk demands.

The challenge will be creating a process for identifying leaders willing to take risks. Providing examples of specific scenarios from various experiences is potentially one of the easiest ways to begin. Over time, the military will begin to demystify the concept of risk by consistently identifying risk-takers and clearly defining what they did, what it changed, and how their actions benefited the mission. Referencing moments throughout Air Force history when risk was taken and successful will solidify the understanding that Air Force heritage was built by taking risks. These examples will help inspire and motivate people and propagate a willingness to accept and take appropriate risks. As Chuck Yeager stated, “You don’t concentrate on risks. You concentrate on results. No risk is too great to prevent the necessary job from getting done.”[15]

The world is becoming increasingly more complex, and the challenges facing the United States military today are acute and dangerous. Facing these challenges demands risk and, therefore, requires action. The Air Force has been in this position many times throughout its history, and “at every stage, with every new trial, no matter how uncomfortable it felt, we proved that we could rise above any challenge. We proved that we were willing to take the risks.”[16] To win the next fight, we must overcome the fear of failure, find the courage to change, and take the necessary action to achieve the goals set by our leaders. The costs of inaction are too significant to ignore. “We have done this before, and we can do it again.”[17]

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